The market didn’t have a good day today. After last week’s strong gap-up driven by impressive earnings from the major AI players, it was inevitable that earnings-related volatility would eventually swing in the opposite direction. Today’s weakness seems to be the result of several overlapping factors: a wave of AI-related layoffs over the past few days, disappointing employment data from Indeed (since we still have no official data due to the government shutdown), concerns

here isn’t a single, universally successful approach when it comes to investing. For example, while some investors prefer to jump onboard high-momentum stocks to ride short-term waves, others follow the Buffett approach — entering solid companies they understand when those are trading at a discount. Both strategies can deliver outstanding returns when executed properly, and most investors don’t exclusively stick to one style. Our Advanced Dashboard reflects this duality..

I regret to inform you that this bull market should continue for a little while longer. Yes, I know — valuations across the index (and many of its components) are filthy. If you read my post “Are We in an AI Bubble?” from last year, you’ll remember that one of my arguments back then was that we were not in a bubble — yet. My reasoning was that the “AI reward” was still mostly concentrated among the companies providing the backbone of the revolution. I compared it to Cisco

We initiated our position in Marathon Digital (MARA) on November 8, 2024. From the outset, our view has been that Bitcoin miners would eventually have their moment in this cycle. The stock did experience a brief run not long after we entered, but that wasn’t the move we were targeting. We remain confident, however, in both the setup and MARA’s ability to lead when that moment truly arrives.

In our last analysis, we noted that after our Color Signal from the Margin Signal reached a very heated reading of 14 (out of 15), the chances of seeing much upside before at least a consolidation were slim. That is exactly what happened. Since then, we’ve had several consecutive down days, but realized volatility remained extremely well contained throughout this series of red candles, and the result has been modest: only –2.27% from daily close high to intraday low on QQQ, a

Following the minor 3% pullback at the start of August, the stock market timidly climbed back, with a few small hiccups driven by anticipation of upcoming economic news. Most of those reports turned out to be less than encouraging — a weaker jobs report and higher-than-expected inflation — yet the market displayed notable resilience. This aligns with the view we shared in our last update: most of our metrics leaned on the bullish side, which did not support a sharp downside m

Our SOPR-based indicator on the Datahub has triggered today, which as officially flipped our Strategy into “out mode.” In this post, we will go over what the indicator measures, what its flip signifies, and how this aligns with the current state of Bitcoin and our associated game plan.

We are happy to release our BTC Datahub. This is something we should have done earlier, but the high cost of raw data and the fact that no single provider fully covered our needs had indefinitely delayed the project. What triggered the urgency was when IntoTheBlock, one of our on-chain data providers, decided to leave TradingView last month...

The market went through a moderate series of red candles last week. Although price action looked bearish, the options market didn’t confirm the move. Some of our option metrics weakened slightly, but none came close to flipping back to red. The biggest positive surprise came Thursday night, on the eve of Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, when the SKEW—which had been holding up stubbornly—finally cooled off by 10 points. That didn’t surprise me. It reflected the lack of

As our Margin Signal’s color indicator surged to a striking 14, we viewed it as a clear opportunity to take profits. While not every market pullback is preceded by a peak in this signal, a peak is almost always followed by some degree of retracement. And indeed, just a few days later, the market dipped in response to weaker-than-expected job creation numbers. The decline was relatively mild: QQQ retraced 3.92% intraday and SPY about 3%. Despite this modest drop, fear retur

I’ve seen many recent discussions on our forum about validating some of the strategies that appear in a stock’s TuneMap optimal region by testing them on periods outside the one used to create the map. The idea of checking how a given strategy might perform — or has performed — in different situations is excellent. However, it’s also challenging and requires a solid understanding of the nuances and caveats of optimization.

In our previous post, we mentioned that the market appeared to be nearing a point of exhaustion. As of today, that call is playing out across several key indicators. This blog post will be brief today as the situation is relatively straight forward and aligned with what we expected. We will then update this post as the story unfolds.

If I had to summarize our previous S&P500 related post in two sentences, I’d say this: the market had climbed rapidly and was due for a brief pause or consolidation—but there were no signs of major overbought conditions. Most of our signals were right in the middle: SKEW had cooled down, market breadth was solid, riskier assets were still leading, and the margin signal sat at a very average level of 7. Following that post, the market indeed moved sideways for about a week

Last time we posted about Bitcoin, our stance was that—even though it had just hit a new all-time high, which is typically a very bullish signal—it wasn’t yet ready for the next explosive phase. This view was based on the supply-demand equation, which, while healthy, wasn’t in the kind of coiled setup we’ve often seen before major breakouts. In line with that assessment, Bitcoin didn’t move much afterward. It traded sideways throughout June, and that range extended into the b

As we promised when we launched WU Advanced a few weeks ago, we’re happy to unveil our new forum, exclusively for WU Advanced members. To echo what I shared earlier: internally, a forum has been discussed since the early days of WealthUmbrella. I’ve personally resisted it until now—mainly because, from what I’ve heard, forums can easily turn into time-consuming monsters..

Yesterday, with the 30-day extension to the previous 90-day delay on the “reciprocal tariff” nearing its end, the White House ramped up pressure on a few trading partners by announcing new tariff threats. In this déjà vu moment, the market responded with a moderate sell-off, with SPY closing down -0.75%.

Dear WU Advanced users, We’ve just given you access to six new TradingView invite-only indicator and strategy files. Five of them are strategy files designed to let you explore various configurations found in TuneMap directly within TradingView. The sixth is an indicator that tracks potential exit points using an Average True Range (ATR)–based trailing stop strategy. Below is a brief explanation of each and how they work.

Yesterday our Risk Index officially reached its threshold of 4 — the level where backtesting suggests it’s better to be out of the market. It’s important to distinguish between our Risk Index and our Hedge strategy. The Hedge is specifically built to shield against drawdowns that have a high probability of becoming significant. It may sometimes trigger before a small dip, but more often it activates ahead of larger corrections — like the one we saw earlier this year. This ma

After a considerable delay, I’m happy to introduce WU Advanced: our solution for delivering more sophisticated signals to market junkies and our first step toward applying our methodology to individual stocks. The broad market is one thing, but individual stocks are a staple in nearly every portfolio—including mine. WU Advanced isn’t meant to replace a stock analyst; we believe the first rule of investing in individual companies is understanding what they do, how they lead th

The main purpose of our Stock Health Dashboard is to offer a quick, intuitive snapshot of whether a company is in good shape — and whether its stock is in a potentially attractive position for investing. You’re not going to find every possible financial or technical metric here. There are already countless free resources, like Yahoo Finance, that provide exhaustive detail. Instead, we focused only on the indicators we believe are most essential — or those we specifically desi