As part of the rework of our hedge signal that began this summer, our first step was to take a closer look at the bear-market component. Vincent already touched on this in the project explanation blog post, but for the sake of completeness, here is a short reminder of how it works. Our hedge signal operates in two distinct modes. In their original work, Jennifer and Vincent found that the “standard” metrics used by the strategy did not perform reliably during bear markets. B

Hi folks, In my traditional year-end post eight months ago, I mentioned that one of our goals for this year was to improve our hedge algorithm. That work is now well underway. We’ve been working on it for the past few weeks and are finally ready to release the first part of what we’ve done. But before diving into the more technical details and the changes we are making, I thought it would be useful to first revisit why we decided to rework what is, after all, one of the core

For the past month and a half, Bitcoin did almost nothing. Price drifted in a narrow band, day after day, and by some measures this was the quietest stretch in the asset's entire history. Volatility this compressed is rare, and it never lasts forever. We were actually preparing an update on this last week. Vincent ran an analysis on the compression and the honest conclusion was that there was no guiding pattern forming at that point. Similar squeezes in the past have resolved

Yesterday, the Margin Risk Signal flipped back to On Margin. The short version: we are bringing the model portfolio to 100% invested, through QQQ, and we are stopping there. No borrowed money, no leverage this time. The rest of this post explains both halves of that decision. In our last post, we described a market that was consolidating without showing a clear trend. The data simply was not leaning far enough in either direction to call it a meaningful shift. Since then,

After our last post on June 10th, where we detailed why we added a new position to our portfolio, QQQ rallied a further 7% in a matter of days. Since then, the market has spent a full month consolidating without establishing any real trend.

Today we added a 24% QQQ allocation to our portfolio, bringing our total equity exposure to 75%. We are currently between signals, and positions taken in these periods are by nature more subjective. They rest on one's read of the situation rather than on a hard, backtested trigger. They don't carry the same statistical weight as a Hedge Signal call, and we'd encourage you to treat them accordingly. Here is our read, briefly.

Today, we're taking a small pause on the data analysis in order to deliver our first major DataHub update since its launch. The original scope of this update was to add detailed descriptions in a new popup window and other small fixes. It then grew into a complete re-styling of the DataHub, a new home page, a new guide page and many more small improvements that I will go into in this blog post.

Hi folks, It’s been a while since I last wrote anything. I had to leave the boat under Zackary’s captainship, not because of a lack of interest, but because I became overloaded in a way I had never anticipated. My new role as CTO AI at Robotiq came at a moment when Physical AI is exploding, adding another layer on top of everything else. At first, it was manageable. I was still able to post several times in January and into early March. But after a few back-to-back busines

We just received a WU Out signal only 15 days after the latest one and 8 days since the latest WU In. This quick signal succession is rare in the Active Hodling signal history, but not unexpected. A rally during the decline phase (yellow background) of the strategy marks the frontier between a bear market rally and the start of a new bull market. As the strategy turns more defensive in this phase, a momentum reversal during a rally will promptly trigger a WU Out signal defaul

And we're back! Thank you so much for your feedback and patience. I hope this improved version strikes a better balance of explaining rationale rather than bombarding data. Let's dive into it.

Why Another Signal So Soon

TL;DR

On March 29th, we reluctantly reduced our leverage to align with the Hedge Signal in what turned out to be a costly signal. Since then, the bounce our other indicators were announcing for quite some time at that point occurred and was boosted by the renewed opening for negotiations and ceasefire. We even got the long awaited DE1 signal the following day after the signal. This fast recovery led to our Market Breadth dropping rapidly below its threshold which triggered the WU I

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Good morning from Japan, everyone. We haven’t written an update for a while, as nothing had really changed since our last note, when the Risk Index reached its threshold and the market remained stuck—rather boringly—in the same trading range, essentially doing nothing. I kind of missed today’s big intraday drama in the stock market, as it was sleep time here in Japan. If the low of the day had broken meaningfully, it likely would have changed the path quite convincingly

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Everything had been going smoothly in the markets since the beginning of the year. Earnings season started on a relatively calm note, and market breadth was improving significantly, led by strength in the Russell 2000. Even the Nasdaq — currently the market’s unpopular child — was on the verge of breaking out of its three-month consolidation to post new all-time highs on Wednesday, following a solid five-day advance. That momentum abruptly reversed, however, as the market fli

My initial idea was to make my first post of the year a longer piece covering the current market environment, the overall outlook for 2026, the leading investment theme for the year, and a few other related topics. As I started writing, however, I realized I had much more to say about the market itself, and that section naturally evolved into a post of its own. Now that we’ve clarified my views on the current market environment and the broader picture for the year, let’s m

Late happy new year, everyone. Sorry for the slight delay on this usual New Year post. I caught that stupid flu over Christmas—like probably half of you—which pushed my New Year post into the first week of January. The first week of the year is always particularly hectic for me work-wise, but more on that later. That being said, I didn’t really feel the rush, as the market is currently doing its thing: a low-volatility grind higher, with some good days and some bad ones, but

I’m glad to introduce the latest addition to PAND·AI: our Investor Sentiment Analysis section. This new feature summarizes what people have been saying about a given stock over the last 72 hours on FinTwit (X), as well as what has been written about that stock during the same period across most major finance-related websites. This section is particularly important to me and is one I consult on a daily basis (yes we had an internal version for a while!). At the end of the d