After our last post on June 10th, where we detailed why we added a new position to our portfolio, QQQ rallied a further 7% in a matter of days. Since then, the market has spent a full month consolidating without establishing any real trend.

Today we added a 24% QQQ allocation to our portfolio, bringing our total equity exposure to 75%. We are currently between signals, and positions taken in these periods are by nature more subjective. They rest on one's read of the situation rather than on a hard, backtested trigger. They don't carry the same statistical weight as a Hedge Signal call, and we'd encourage you to treat them accordingly. Here is our read, briefly.

Hi folks, It’s been a while since I last wrote anything. I had to leave the boat under Zackary’s captainship, not because of a lack of interest, but because I became overloaded in a way I had never anticipated. My new role as CTO AI at Robotiq came at a moment when Physical AI is exploding, adding another layer on top of everything else. At first, it was manageable. I was still able to post several times in January and into early March. But after a few back-to-back busines

And we're back! Thank you so much for your feedback and patience. I hope this improved version strikes a better balance of explaining rationale rather than bombarding data. Let's dive into it.

TL;DR

On March 29th, we reluctantly reduced our leverage to align with the Hedge Signal in what turned out to be a costly signal. Since then, the bounce our other indicators were announcing for quite some time at that point occurred and was boosted by the renewed opening for negotiations and ceasefire. We even got the long awaited DE1 signal the following day after the signal. This fast recovery led to our Market Breadth dropping rapidly below its threshold which triggered the WU I

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Good morning from Japan, everyone. We haven’t written an update for a while, as nothing had really changed since our last note, when the Risk Index reached its threshold and the market remained stuck—rather boringly—in the same trading range, essentially doing nothing. I kind of missed today’s big intraday drama in the stock market, as it was sleep time here in Japan. If the low of the day had broken meaningfully, it likely would have changed the path quite convincingly

Everything had been going smoothly in the markets since the beginning of the year. Earnings season started on a relatively calm note, and market breadth was improving significantly, led by strength in the Russell 2000. Even the Nasdaq — currently the market’s unpopular child — was on the verge of breaking out of its three-month consolidation to post new all-time highs on Wednesday, following a solid five-day advance. That momentum abruptly reversed, however, as the market fli