My initial idea was to make my first post of the year a longer piece covering the current market environment, the overall outlook for 2026, the leading investment theme for the year, and a few other related topics. As I started writing, however, I realized I had much more to say about the market itself, and that section naturally evolved into a post of its own. Now that we’ve clarified my views on the current market environment and the broader picture for the year, let’s m

After nearly three months out of the market, our BTC Active Hodling strategy re-entered the market on Saturday. The data behind this signal is considerably delayed, so the alert only appeared on Sunday. With this morning’s new data, we confirmed that there would be no repainting, so we sent you an SMS alert at a moment when BTC was trading roughly around the midpoint of Sunday’s candle. Since then, BTC has continued to rise. Here is a quick update on what triggered the “WU IN

We haven’t said much during this correction simply because there was nothing to say. We couldn’t identify anything that suggested we were nearing the end of the pullback, nor anything confirming the opposite. We were right in the middle of nowhere. Sometimes that’s just the truth. Even Michael Saylor probably had no idea where we were. Writing an update at that point would have only added noise. Now the picture is a bit different. Something tells us we could be about to se

We initiated our position in Marathon Digital (MARA) on November 8, 2024. From the outset, our view has been that Bitcoin miners would eventually have their moment in this cycle. The stock did experience a brief run not long after we entered, but that wasn’t the move we were targeting. We remain confident, however, in both the setup and MARA’s ability to lead when that moment truly arrives.

Our SOPR-based indicator on the Datahub has triggered today, which as officially flipped our Strategy into “out mode.” In this post, we will go over what the indicator measures, what its flip signifies, and how this aligns with the current state of Bitcoin and our associated game plan.

We are happy to release our BTC Datahub. This is something we should have done earlier, but the high cost of raw data and the fact that no single provider fully covered our needs had indefinitely delayed the project. What triggered the urgency was when IntoTheBlock, one of our on-chain data providers, decided to leave TradingView last month...

Last time we posted about Bitcoin, our stance was that—even though it had just hit a new all-time high, which is typically a very bullish signal—it wasn’t yet ready for the next explosive phase. This view was based on the supply-demand equation, which, while healthy, wasn’t in the kind of coiled setup we’ve often seen before major breakouts. In line with that assessment, Bitcoin didn’t move much afterward. It traded sideways throughout June, and that range extended into the b

Since Bitcoin cooled off in December 2024, we’ve maintained our view that—based on how Bitcoin tends to behave across different dimensions of its history—we have not yet seen the top of this cycle. We’ve consistently repeated this position throughout the entire drawdown, including when our strategy triggered an exit, and again in the post we published two weeks ago.

Since Bitcoin entered a range in December—later evolving into a correction in February—our stance has remained consistent: if history is any guide, the top for this cycle is still ahead. We continue to view this phase as a prolonged pause in the powerful bull trend that began with the November 2022 low. This perspective is reinforced by our three Market Top indicators, each of which analyzes a different aspect of the Bitcoin blockchain ecosystem. These indicators are ...