Stress without structural breakdown: the story of Bitcoin’s latest drawdown

When Bitcoin rallied at the beginning of the year, we noted in our Year Kickoff post that, while the move was enjoyable to watch, it lacked the traditional signs of supply-crunch pressure typically seen ahead of a push to new all-time highs. As a result, our expectations remained deliberately moderate. Since that update, the data has continued to point to a tug-of-war, with opposing forces largely offsetting one another and no clear directional signal emerging. The recent drawdown, while notable, does not materially alter that assessment, but it does provide a timely opportunity to clarify how the underlying dynamics are evolving.

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