top of page

S&P500 Market Update (1/2)

-EXCLUSIVE- Here is a quick S&P500 update based on what WU is currently observing from some of its indicators. We hope this can help you get a clearer picture of what is going on in the market.

Want to read more?

Subscribe to thewealthumbrella.com to keep reading this exclusive post.

12 comments

12 Comments

Paula H
Paula H
Oct 12, 2023
•

Well this was a nice fast short trade that I took based on your high conviction, thank you!


BandBreaker is a super useful tool. I use it all the time and nowadays during a longer correction, I just sit back and buy my highest conviction long trades when it starts hitting alerts in a couple of days time period (really easy to set your own alerts on TV) on multiple stocks and indexes that I track. Good forecast that at least some kind of a bottom is forming!


Like
Paula H
Paula H
Oct 15, 2023
•
Replying to

Great to hear that my BB comments were enlightening 🙂


Couple of years ago I liked Bollinger Bands a lot and tried to make it work in my trades, but no matter how I changed it I wasn’t happy with the results, so eventually I had to ditch it. When I saw BandBreaker I was immediately like, now we’re talking! So my history with Bollinger helped a lot with realizing this was the missing implementation and it was easy to built confidence.


Currently I'm still thinking about Margin Risk indicator. I think it is a important gas pedal indicator, and I'm not sure how much beta I'm going to allocate based on it when it goes 'ON' again. Thinking abou…


Like
Jack Mason
Oct 12, 2023

Hi Vincent, you mentioned in the post you will send out another SMS alert if you have buy signal. But we are already at beta 3. You plan to increase beta for new buy signal ?

Edited
Like
Vincent D.
Vincent D.
Oct 13, 2023
•
Replying to

Yes and no; let me give you more details. There is the hedge strategy. At this moment, the SPY one is in the market. But just because it is in the market doesn't mean some of the internal signals can't send a buy signal. Naturally, a buy signal when already in the market won't change the state of the strategy, but it's still relevant to know. Since I know that most of your portfolios are not binary, I will monitor the 3 buy signals that I'm anticipating and inform you via SMS when they will each trigger. I hope this can reinforce your belief that this correction is behind us and help you formulate your own game plan with your…

Like
IB
Oct 12, 2023

Hi Vincent, any chance for a bandbreaker alert tool? The results are great!

Like
Vincent D.
Vincent D.
Oct 13, 2023
•
Replying to

Hi Ibrahim,


I do send band breaker alerts for SPY or QQQ (and we've already done it twice or maybe more), but since I can't monitor every stock, I programmed indicator markers into the system that you can use to trigger your own alerts for the stocks you're interested in. The complete algorithm, with all its restrictive conditions, is marked as "Oversold." The others are simply based on relatively high Bollinger Band thresholds. The oversold algorithm was tuned specifically for QQQ. If your stock has a very high beta in relation to QQQ, it might not be restrictive enough (like Bitcoin when it becomes active again). In that case, you could use the 3STD. For assets with a lower beta,…



Like
Etienne
Oct 12, 2023

Excellent update as usual Vincent, if you can, when plotting VIX curves for example, see if you can overlay or add in a subplot the SPY. Thank you!

Like
Vincent D.
Vincent D.
Oct 13, 2023
•
Replying to

Yes, I will ! This is what I usually do, but I made a shortcut this time ( and maybe last time !).

Like
Kiyan A
Oct 12, 2023
•

Trying to make sense of your observations regarding the bear market indicator being at the upper range of what it normally experiences during a "push out of a bear market low", and the phase angle being somewhere in the middle of the range for the same thing.


I guess your point is not that they are too high, but that we are not just pushing out of a bear market low right now, so any upward movement will always have readings lower than the "bear push maximum". And we are already in the upper range with the first indicator, and somewhere in the middle with the second, so you expect these will need to cool off, because they rarely get…


Like
Kiyan A
Oct 16, 2023
•
Replying to

Thanks Vincent. Yes, i may not have expressed it clearly but that’s what I meant — pushes out of bear markets are typically higher and stronger than the maximum we can expect out of a local pullback in a bull market, so we were stretched at the time.

Capitalizing on a quick short I suppose is a nice bonus if you are confident in the long position over time. In my case I preferred to reduce my exposure slightly and then add back. I believe that theoretically accomplishes the same thing on the way down and the way up if the short position is opened and closed at the same time as a person might reduce exposure and then…

Like
bottom of page