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A New Tool for Investors: The WU S&P 500 Risk Index

I know that many of you are eagerly waiting for us to make a move to re-enter the market. Since our last post, we have been patient, waiting for the best possible re-entry point. By "best," I mean not only a lower entry point but also one where we perceive less potential risk. Nvidia's earnings presented a risk we weren’t ready to bet on, and I'm also closely watching the upcoming unemployment numbers. I believe this data will be incredibly important, as it could confirm or refute the trend that triggered the Sahm rule last month. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will wait for this data to be released, but we need to see the trend resuming before re-entering the market. There is especially some data, like the SKEW, that currently screams RISK (I wrote this part last Friday, before the horrible day we had yesterday at the index level).

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15 comments

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15 Comments


Syed Jilani
4 days ago

Hi Vincent, this looks fantastic !

questions.

  1. What candle duration (12hours/day/3 day) do you find optimal

  2. What is your view of the 3day candle on threshold value of 3

    your feedback is much appreciated, and best wishes to you and team, you guys are doing next level work.


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TRADINGVIEW ACCESS


As of yesterday, all TradingView usernames should be functional with the new indicator. If you experience any issues, please try logging out, closing your browser or app, and logging back in. If that doesn’t resolve the issue, feel free to contact me at nathalie@thewealthumbrella.com—since every case can be different. Additionally, if you’d like to add a new TradingView username to your account, please let me know.


Also, please note that since TradingView no longer supports emojis in titles, we’ve updated our identifier. From now on, ☂️ and ~ symbols will represent our exclusive indicators, meticulously crafted by us, while other "WU" invite-only script indicators have been derived from pre-existing sources and enhanced by our expertise, or completely rebuilt…


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Alan Moret
5 days ago

thanks Vincent. I intend to redo my own combination analysis of this new signal with WU-IN/WU-OUT to see what results I come up with. I am sure that your eventual work will be more insightful but I want to develop some statistical insight to guide what I might do if the Risk index turns red (3 or 4) while WU-IN is still active (or visa versa if WU-OUT while risk index is still below 3 ) Based on what you stated above I'll focus on 2017 and later data for now. I am interest edalso on how I might distinguish between exiting and shorting (3 or 4 perhaps? ) or (long and leverage (1 and 0 perhap…

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Vincent D.
Vincent D.
4 days ago
Replying to

The way the hedge currently works is that every internal modality can independently trigger a hedge or unhedge signal. Therefore, simply adding the Risk Index as a signal should give you a similar result to what I would get if I did it within the code. One thing I intend, though, is deactivating the Risk Index when we get a bear market signal. Since you also have access to that signal in the hedge strategy, I recommend you do the same. I am already confident that this combination should be effective. I do hope to be able to improve it a bit by starting to create interactions between all the hedge modalities. This is a future project.


About statistical validity,…


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Michael Korb
Michael Korb
5 days ago

Thanks Vincent. Great work as always. Is this a long only indicator or a flip long to short and vice versa indicator?


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Vincent D.
Vincent D.
5 days ago
Replying to

No, the results I gave were indeed only for long to neutral. The long to short results are actually surprising, considering that the Risk Index performance was not stellar in the 2022 bear market where it could hurt the most. The return goes from $2,598 to $3,814 for exiting at 4, and $2,678 to $4,226 for exiting at 3. That being said, the hit rate tends to go down significantly as it drops from 78% to 65% for the first strategy, and from 72% to 62%. I am not surprised to see such a hit rate difference between long/neutral and long/short, as the risk index being so simple, there wasn't much we could optimize to get a more uniform hit…



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jlei
5 days ago

Great job! Looking forward to the new dashboard and apis. I noticed that for some WU indicators, including the newly created one, the legend of the charts are all the same default values such as "Plot" or "Shapes". Could this be updated to be more meaningful (or at least be unique)? I download charts data and use them to backtest my strategies based on WU signal. With the defaults columns have the same header and it's easy to mess up. Thanks.

Edited
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Vincent D.
Vincent D.
4 days ago
Replying to

Good comment. Yes I will do and push the update soon.

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