top of page

S&P500 Update: Hedge Signal

-------UPDATE (08/21/2023 5h30 pm New York time)-------

Want to read more?

Subscribe to thewealthumbrella.com to keep reading this exclusive post.

45 comments

45 Comments

pks
Aug 30, 2023

Hi Vincent, appreciate if you can provide an update, if we are close to going positive?

Like
pks
Aug 30, 2023
Replying to

thanks Vincent, this helps us plan the day tomorrow.

Like
Kiyan A
Aug 29, 2023
•

Any updates on where we are today? Are we close to re-entering based on any of the signal's metrics?

Like
Vincent D.
Vincent D.
Aug 30, 2023
•
Replying to

Replying topks

This is not always easy to say when exactly the strategy will re-enter the market. The code is thousands of lines, and TradingView does not allow easy monitoring of each internal variable (There is no debug mode). I just spent hours working on that. My prediction is that unless we have a very big move to the downside, the strategy should send a buy signal tomorrow. There are 2 components that are close to their threshold including one that is only at a fraction of digit from it. One is price action-driven (RWB ribbon), and the other one is related to the current Option positioning. The metric that raised a red flag is receding, although still very f…

Like
Junomean2
Aug 24, 2023

I am new and a little confused. Does "WU Out" mean hedge or just not leveraged long? My assumption is that in bull market mode it just means unleveraged but then how do we know when to actually hedge? Wait until bear market mode is triggered? Thanks.

Like
michael
Aug 25, 2023
Replying to

question... in the weeds a bit, but curious... if you hedged instead of sold to avoid taxes, and the hedge was profitable, would you not owe taxes when you took the hedge off? or is part of the calculus of that move that the profit from the hedge, if any, would result in a lower tax bill than selling... and if the hedge was unprofitable then you have a loss that you can use to offset the tax bill if you do sell some at some point?

Like
Kiyan A
Aug 23, 2023
•

Hi Vincent, can you please let us know how close we are to re-entering? NVDA really screwed everything up. I would rather get in afterhours or premarket tomorrow than have to wait for some mid-day price if we are about to rip straight to heaven again.


Having said that, Fed comments on Friday might provide a better entry. It's really too bad that the signal was not based on one definitive metric out of the blue and the orange; it really sucks that there was a conflict here. I just wanted to put the decision out of my own emotions, which was the main reason for choosing to go with WU. Maybe I should have followed your personal decision instead,…


Like
pks
Aug 24, 2023
Replying to

Hi Vincent, would you be open to sharing your personal portfolio of stocks? it would be much appreciate if you do..

Like
Vincent D.
Vincent D.
Aug 23, 2023
•

The current reading of the Phase Angle on the QQQ (not yet on SPY) if it's hold until the end of the day suggest that this is more than simply a B bounce.

Like
Vincent D.
Vincent D.
Aug 24, 2023
•
Replying to

There is a threshold on the Phase angle that can, in most cases, separate the new uptrend from the dead cat bounces. Usually, on the S&P500, I consider a phase angle of 0.04 and higher as a signal that this is not a dead cat bounce (we didnt reach that threhsold yesterday on SPY). This threshold doesn't have a 100% success rate, as some major corrections go higher than that in a bounce (the Covid crash saw its early March bounce reaching 0.07 on the phase angle), but would still work very well in most correction. I provide this threshold in case someone would want to frontrun the hedge signal and use the Phase Angle as a tool. However, the…

Like
bottom of page