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S&P500: Flying or Falling?

Last time we wrote, we said that our view was that the market had started to be oversold and that we should be about to see at least a bounce. It did continue for two red candles going down before stopping right at the end of the range we said the market usually goes before bouncing (5%-8%). I hope some of you shopped for this bounce.

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7 comments

7 Comments

Jawaid Ekram
May 01

Vincent:


What is the difference between the "Nasdaq Umbrella" and "SP 500 Umbrella? will they be closely correlated? Now we have such a large concentration on SP 500. For example, the Market in Bear would be the same or different. Can I use the same Trading View to track Nasdaq vs SP 500?


Great work


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Betabull3945
Apr 30

Vincent another thing that should be taken into consideration even though it has nothing to do with your indicators is the Zweig Breath Thrust we might have soon...we have until May 2nd to get that 0.615 mark...what a wonderful set up for ATH it would be just after FOMC


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Vincent D.
Vincent D.
Apr 29
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It went right to our target line. Our order was filled just a tiny bit below at $56.23. Very small gain, but at least we didn't loose! Just as a small reminder, we didn't close our trade because our conviction was that we would go down next, but simply to respect our target for this oversold play. We are comfortable being neutral until the market makes a decision.



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Frederick Horne
Apr 29

Excellent detailed and nuanced analysis as always! Thank you!

Keep an eye on Yellen’s statement about the quarterly Treasury refunding, which will come out ahead of Powell’s remarks. Some thinking around that she will be injecting liquidity by reducing the Treasury General Account. If true, this may partially offset any hawkish remarks by Powell intended to cool the core economy which has begun to back up away from the 2% goal. Yellen statement on Wednesday May 1 @ 0830 ET; Powell at 1400 ET later the same day. On the ither hand, if she does not indicate new liquidity, then it’s down to Powell and look out!

Edited
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Vincent D.
Vincent D.
Apr 29
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Replying to

Thanks, Frederick, for this important comment. I think you are very right about Yellen's statement as a potential bullish catalyst. I hope other members read your comment. I may actually edit this post to add this very important milestone. I am also on watch for what will happen in Japan. I am going to Tokyo next Monday, and part of me wishes the government doesn’t intervene in their currency so I can shop for amazing Japanese knives at a discount (that's one of my vices).

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Etienne
Apr 29

Thank you Vincent, another Powell Presser opportunity! I am not sure what will dictate the next move, but I'm thinking the usual better than feared as well as Yellen's issuance! Great timely update as usual 👍

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Vincent D.
Vincent D.
Apr 29
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Replying to

Thanks Étienne. Yes I do anticipate having fun trading the press conference on Wednesday ! But I think this event if of utmost importance as it will be setting the next trend.

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