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New All-Time High, but the Moon Might Have to Wait

EXCLUSIVE - I will be super brief this time as Bitcoin price is currently moving fast. This morning, I was posting this on Twitter as BTC just passed its ATH and was at $69k.

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14 comments

14 Comments

nasser tehrani
Mar 10

Hi Vincent-

MRHR seems to be a solid Tops Signal. Hoping u would address it in one of your blogs and particularly juxtapose it w MLDP.

Also, wondering if the SP500 analytical package has a tool similar to the BTC Phase Angle for other equities or indicies?

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Aamir
Mar 05

Hi Vincent,


I am curious to know why you didn't raise some cash (i.e., sell some of your BTC to capture some gains) or even short BTCUSD when you were anticipating a pullback?

Thank you

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Vincent D.
Vincent D.
Mar 06
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Replying to

Part of the answer is in Michael's response. Like I said in a previous blog post, I really spent a lot of time trying to make a strategy that would efficiently go in and out in the green environment without consistent success, and the main reason why is that corrections go so fast that you often end up selling lower than the price you end up re-entering at. That being said, since we knew this time where it would reverse, it could have been efficient to play this one. I didn't with WU as this would have been going away from our signal, but I gave sufficient clues about what I think would happen for someone playing this thing (at…


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pks
Mar 05

i presume that the 16% dip did not cool down mldp z-score at all. probably this means that we are loooking for a much larger dip before entering?

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michael
Mar 06
Replying to

nice. this answered a question I was wondering about and that was if time could cool down the z-score or if it was purely price driven. and now I have that answer! it seems likely to me that time is the mechanism by which it will cool down this time around... I don't think the price will dip too much beyond the 16% you have noted. I had a limit buy in at $55k but I raised that to $57k after yesterday's action. Also, have one at $60k-ish.

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Kiyan A
Mar 05
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Surprisingly we got to 59.3K at one point (about a -13.5% correction). If one bought the dip then, it would've been good risk/reward considering this article. It only lasted a few minutes though. Unfortunately, I waited and didn't pull the trigger... yet. I will if we get another leg down.

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Vincent D.
Vincent D.
Mar 06
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Replying to

Well, I missed it too, and I was in front of my computer; it unfolded so fast. One minute we were at $63k, a level I was not willing to pull the trigger at, and then we were back there after visiting $59k. I know we have great price action today, but I seriously doubt that these turbulences are done and that we are moving back straight into price discovery mode. I think we should see a trading range at least, and this will give us some good opportunities to buy the dips at the bottom of the range. I am okay with the other scenario where we will go back straight up into ATH and beyond. In this scenario,…

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Heth Vaishnav
Mar 05
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Hello Vincent, it was interesting to see that miners did not participate in the recent Bitcoin rally. Would you still consider them as investment once BTC settles in the range outlined?


Also, MicroStrategy?

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Vincent D.
Vincent D.
Mar 06
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Replying to

I'm not surprised to see miners not participating here. In my humble, non-expert point of view, they are somehow tied to Bitcoin price action, but also to other factors like debt, energy cost, and also stock market trend. The stock market is still doing well at the index level, but it wasn't that generous this year for more risky tech plays, and miners can somehow have this label. Also, with the halving, they also have a big bump ahead of them. Cutting the reward by half instantly hurts them. This does trigger a closed-loop reaction that eventually will put them back in a good position, but just around the event, it probably hurts them. I personally anticipate re-entering MARA (a…


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