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Every Good Thing Has Its End, But It Doesn't Have to Be Now

-EXCLUSIVE- While a lot of people turned bearish following the consolidation period that the S&P500 went through from the end of November to the beginning of December, our Option model has allowed us to remain confident that this pattern would break to the upside. On December 7th, it indeed followed that path, a move that greatly accelerated on December 13th after Powell's press conference, which was perceived as a dovish pivot.

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18 comments

18 comentarios

Juan Ramos
28 dic 2023

412.92 the high so far on Dec 28

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Twingems
21 dic 2023

I got this email "If SPY is higher than 471.33 at 23:55UTC, WU will Buy". Is this a go on margin alert?

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Twingems
22 dic 2023
Contestando a

OK, I forwarded it to you.

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pks
18 dic 2023

Hi Vincent, this update is much appreciated. On one hand, we are close to all time highs where you think it could be prudent to go neutral, however on the other side, it looks like margin risk indicator is about to go green - this could mean blow off the top? what do you think?

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Vincent D.
Vincent D.
18 dic 2023
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Contestando a

Hi Pks,

Yes, you are right, the margin risk indicator is about to flip into the green, but we will not get a margin signal unless we have a buy signal in that zone. A buy signal is the signal used by the hedging strategy to re-enter the market. It doesn't have to be in a hedge mode to fire one. It's just that when we are already in the market, the hedge algo ignores this signal, but the Margin indicator will not ignore it. I expect that this will happen after the next pullback. At this moment, the color associated with the signal is already in the orange, at the limit of the red.


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Bjoern
18 dic 2023
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Dear Vincent,

hope you are fully back, feeling well and in full health again!


So you are writing about QQQ which usually I read about in the IO Fund forum. Might the model probably going to release a sell signal at the top (around 413 ?).


Thanks and Best,

Bjoern

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Vincent D.
Vincent D.
18 dic 2023
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Contestando a

Thanks, Bjoern. Yes, I'm almost back to full health. It's my third time getting COVID. The other two times were an easy thing for me, so I had assumed that it would be the same this time. But I was wrong; I was miserable for 3-4 days. I made my own correlation with these three data points: COVID is easier when Jerome Powell is printing money. I'm sure it's a valid conclusion.

Since the QQQ usually leads the S&P, there are some features of the algo that are aligned with the Nasdaq. Conversely, there are also some features related to the S&P 500 that are included in the QQQ strategy. At this moment, the feature that would have the algo…

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Etienne
18 dic 2023

396 seems quite high, that 61.8 % ?


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