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BTC Update

- EXCLUSIVE - Since our last post, Bitcoin has seen a bit of a correction, so I thought a timely update of the situation was appropriate.

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6 comments

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6 comentarios

vlado b
22 abr 2023

Thanks for the update

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EO
22 abr 2023

Thanks Vincent, appreciate the update!


Still worries me that BTC has only lived since 2009 in a QE + no inflationary environment, and there is really no data to back up how it would behave through a real recession / market crash (like 2000, 2008) or through a 1970s rate hike / inflationary environment..


Any thoughts on this?

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Vincent D.
Vincent D.
22 abr 2023
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Contestando a

I totally get your point and what you're saying was one of my main concerns with this current cycle. That being said, one year later and despite the most drastic rate hike we have ever seen, we have to conclude that Bitcoin has, as of now, behaved exactly like it was supposed to. $15.5K was right in the middle of the bottoming price we could derive from a lot of indicators if it was following what it did in the previous cycle.


My theory is that the Bitcoin ecosystem is, in part, what we call a closed-loop system. I don't know your background, so I will assume that you may not know what this is. A simple example of a…


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Etienne
21 abr 2023

Has the strategy, at some point in the past, ever considered, say, QQQ market breadth ? Is there such thing with Bitcoin, crypto as a whole? I understand Bitcoin is a totally different animal.

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Vincent D.
Vincent D.
22 abr 2023
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Contestando a

Our SP500 hedging signal is taking the Breadth in a derived form (not directly breadth indicator) as a signal. In fact it is a very important one.


For me looking at the breadth is a way to decouple the price action from the current perception of risk and also how market participants are affected. We can see a good example of this in November 2021 where we were doing new all-time high on the index, while the breadth was horrible. People were already so affected by the bubble deflation that has started in february 2021 that when the real index drop started in January 2022 lot of people were already massively down or close to margin call and then were…

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Etienne
21 abr 2023

Thank you Vincent, on watch! Have a great weekend!

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