To evaluate economic growth in China, DataTrek uses real-time air quality readings.
The concept is simple: marginal economic activity almost always generates additional air pollution, especially in an industrial economy like China.
By comparing this year's air quality readings to those of last year, we can determine whether the Chinese economy is accelerating or slowing down.
To do this, DataTrek focuses on the five largest cities in terms of national GDP (gross domestic product): Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chongqing, and Guangzhou. The data in the graph below is color-coded, ranging from green (low air pollution) to yellow/orange (medium pollution) and red/purple (high pollution).
Although Beijing is the capital of the country, Shanghai is actually larger in terms of economic output.
According to the air quality readings, the local economy appears to be significantly less active than in 2023, especially over the past 3-4 weeks.
The conclusion of the overall analysis supports this: the Chinese economy is stagnating and shows few signs of marginal improvement.
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